Математическое моделирование потребности населения старших возрастных групп в стационарной медицинской помощи

Sergey  Cherkasov; Anna  Fedyaeva; Vasily  Avsadzhanishvili

doi:10.21638/spbu11.2022.206

Authors

Sergey Cherkasov V. A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences, 65, ul. Profsoyuznaya, Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation ; N. A. Semashko National Research Institute of Public Health, 12/1, ul. Vorontsovo Pole, Moscow, 105064, Russian Federation
Anna Fedyaeva V. A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences, 65, ul. Profsoyuznaya, Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation
Vasily Avsadzhanishvili Pirogov Russian National Research Medical University, 1, ul. Ostrovityanova, Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu11.2022.206

Abstract

The aim of the study is to construct a model of the needs of the population of older age groups in medical care provided in stationary conditions. Modeling was carried out on the basis of data on cases of medical care in the period 2018–2019. Population of older age groups living in the Moscow region. The probability of inpatient care was determined in each one-year age interval, starting at age 60. When constructing the dynamic curve, 41 points were used. In modeling, they adhered to the functional principle of describing age dynamics by an algebraic function, which was determined by the least squares method (regression analysis). The quality of the obtained models was evaluated by the value of the approximation coefficient. The degree of influence of age on the dependent variable (the magnitude of the need for care) was defined as the empirical correlation ratio during the variance analysis. The age dynamics of the need for medical care provided in inpatient conditions as well as in the conditions of a day hospital in the population of older age groups can be described using a second order parabola with a negative first coefficient. It should be noted the similarity of modeling functions used to describe the age dynamics of demanded volumes of medical care provided in outpatient and inpatient settings. There were no significant gender differences in the modelling of age dynamics of the need for medical care provided in a 24-hour hospital setting. The level of need is higher in men in all age groups studied, which is the opposite result relative to the need for outpatient care. The level of need for medical care provided in a day hospital setting is higher in women in all age groups studied, which corresponds to the results obtained in the study of the need for medical care provided in an outpatient setting.

Keywords:

planning, need for medical care, modeling, older age groups, age dynamics, health system, medical care provided in stationary conditions

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